Work research

In my role as a European Economist at Deutsche Bank, I produce and co-author a range of research pieces on the ECB, the euro area economy, and other topics. A list of that research and links to the individual reports can be found below. Note that a subscription to Deutsche Bank’s research is required to access all of these reports.

List of research last updated 05 Jun 2026.

Date Type Report
2026 Jun 05 Euro Weekly Digest ECB to enter the "measured tightening" phase
2026 Jun 05 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Determined to keep inflation risk under control
2026 Jun 04 Europe Chart Of The Week When energy meets defence - demonstrating (some) fiscal flexibility
2026 Jun 03 The Wide Angle May dbDataInsights survey – Has the inflation shock peaked already?
2026 Jun 01 Focus Europe WO Forecast Update: An unavoidable shock
2026 Jun 01 Focus Europe Client survey: Share your views on the June ECB meeting
2026 May 28 ECB Watcher April accounts – Preparing to hike
2026 May 28 Europe Chart Of The Week The myth of the insulated services sector
2026 May 22 Euro Weekly Digest Noisy survey data suggest risk of a recessionary orbit
2026 May 21 Europe Chart Of The Week Purchasing Managers: A direct hit from the energy shock
2026 May 15 Euro Weekly Digest Will the ECB hike in June?
2026 May 15 Europe Chart Of The Week Delving Deeper: Services prices and demand destruction
2026 May 14 Europe Blog How much passthrough? The state-contingency of euro area price surveys
2026 May 07 Europe Chart Of The Week Iran shock, supply constraints and firms' selling prices: worrying signs
2026 May 06 The Wide Angle April dbDataInsights survey – Household inflation expectations update
2026 Apr 30 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A rapidly narrowing window to avoid hikes
2026 Apr 24 Euro Weekly Digest Plenty of data next week, but has the ECB already made up its mind?
2026 Apr 24 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Tough talk, tough decisions
2026 Apr 24 Europe Chart Of The Week Iran shock: Higher uncertainty, higher savings, lower growth
2026 Apr 21 Global Economics Monthly Flyover (April 2026)
2026 Apr 10 Euro Weekly Digest Economic momentum softens, and households worry about inflation
2026 Apr 09 Europe Chart Of The Week Baseline or adverse? Energy prices send the ECB mixed messages
2026 Apr 08 The Wide Angle March dbDataInsights survey – Iran war clearly boosting household inflation expectations
2026 Apr 02 Euro Weekly Digest Surging energy prices dominate the ongoing disinflation in core inflation
2026 Mar 31 Europe Chart Of The Week What if…Iran Shock and recessionary risks
2026 Mar 27 Euro Weekly Digest Fiscal measures partially buffer rising fuel prices
2026 Mar 26 Europe Blog The latest update on bank lending and financial conditions
2026 Mar 25 Europe Chart Of The Week Fiscal shielding: How much protection are households getting from energy?
2026 Mar 25 Focus Europe Labour Market Chartbook: Resilience and Fragility
2026 Mar 24 Europe Chart Of The Week Firms absorbing the energy shock...for now
2026 Mar 24 Global Economics Monthly Flyover (March 2026) (1 Page)
2026 Mar 20 Euro Weekly Digest Resetting the macro baseline
2026 Mar 19 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Keeping calm and carrying on to 2.50%
2026 Mar 18 Europe Chart Of The Week Crude calculations: Price spikes and the energy import bill
2026 Mar 18 Focus Europe A new inflation test: Our ECB client survey results
2026 Mar 17 Focus Europe Last call – client survey: Share your views on the March ECB meeting (1 Page)
2026 Mar 13 Euro Weekly Digest The Iran conflict: A new inflation test for the ECB
2026 Mar 13 Europe Chart Of The Week Meanwhile, the shifting political landscape at home
2026 Mar 13 Focus Europe Jeopardy: Energy prices and the fragility of inflation expectations
2026 Mar 12 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Contingency, jeopardy and a commitment to price stability
2026 Mar 11 Focus Europe Client survey: Share your views on the March ECB meeting (1 Page)
2026 Mar 06 Euro Weekly Digest Governing Council comments imply reluctance to react too quickly
2026 Mar 06 Focus Europe Iran Shock: A macro impact scenario analysis
2026 Mar 06 Europe Chart Of The Week Who is passing through the Strait of Hormuz?
2026 Mar 05 The Wide Angle February dbDataInsights survey – Euro area inflation expectations continue to gradually soften
2026 Mar 05 Europe Chart Of The Week Energy Dependency: Who's most exposed?
2026 Mar 02 Focus Europe Iran Shock: Key transmission channels
2026 Feb 27 Euro Weekly Digest A strong start to February's inflation prints
2026 Feb 27 Europe Chart Of The Week Peak tariffs and the benefit of exemptions
2026 Feb 20 Euro Weekly Digest Despite reports, Lagarde's baseline is finishing out her full term at the ECB
2026 Feb 19 Europe Chart Of The Week Defending Europe: Who’s "SAFE" spending?
2026 Feb 19 Global Economics The Monthly Flyover (February 2026)
2026 Feb 18 Focus Europe Personnel vs. policy: ECB policy will hold its course
2026 Feb 13 Euro Weekly Digest EU leaders debate joint borrowing, competition and defence
2026 Feb 12 Europe Chart Of The Week Spillover: What rising German orders mean for European growth
2026 Feb 06 Euro Weekly Digest ECB thinks risks are still balanced despite some new hawkish elements
2026 Feb 05 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Constructive balance
2026 Feb 05 The Wide Angle January dbDataInsights survey – Inflation expectations in a good place, but risks mean not a fixed place
2026 Feb 04 Europe Chart Of The Week Diminishing impact: FX and the pricing chain
2026 Jan 30 Euro Weekly Digest ECB must balance domestic resilience against external headwinds
2026 Jan 30 Focus Europe ECB Preview: FX and the uncertainty nexus
2026 Jan 29 Focus Europe Testing the anchor: A deep dive into euro area inflation expectations
2026 Jan 27 Europe Chart Of The Week January price resets and the unwinding of inflation persistence
2026 Jan 23 Euro Weekly Digest A cold and uncertain winter
2026 Jan 22 ECB Watcher December accounts – All about the risks
2026 Jan 22 Europe Chart Of The Week The volatility of uncertainty
2026 Jan 16 Focus Europe Greenland and the EU: Options, impact and ramifications
2026 Jan 16 Euro Weekly Digest Independence in the spotlight
2026 Jan 15 Focus Europe ECB Executive Board: Underpinning independence
2026 Jan 15 Europe Chart Of The Week US tariffs on Europe - Close to the ceiling
2026 Jan 09 Euro Weekly Digest A strong end to 2025, but an uncertain start to 2026
2026 Jan 08 Europe Chart Of The Week Changing gears: Core vs periphery and who’s driving growth
2026 Jan 08 Europe Blog Outlook 2026: Resilience vs. Rigidity (Part 3)
2026 Jan 07 The Wide Angle December dbDataInsights survey – Euro area inflation expectations remain anchored at target
2026 Jan 07 Europe Blog Outlook 2026: Resilience vs. Rigidity (Part 2)
2026 Jan 06 Europe Blog Outlook 2026: Resilience vs. Rigidity (Part 1)
2025 Dec 19 Euro Weekly Digest Ending the year on a hawkish note
2025 Dec 18 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: On hold, with some hawkish undercurrents
2025 Dec 17 Europe Chart Of The Week Rate my recovery: Tracking Europe’s accelerating growth momentum
2025 Dec 15 Focus Europe A tale of two outlooks: Our ECB client survey results
2025 Dec 12 Euro Weekly Digest ECB outlook: Less dovish rather than more hawkish
2025 Dec 11 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Growing confidence in growth
2025 Dec 11 Europe Chart Of The Week To hike or to cut, that is the question
2025 Dec 08 Focus Europe Client survey: Share your views on the December ECB meeting (1 Page)
2025 Dec 05 Focus Europe Outlook 2026: The two-economy problem
2025 Dec 05 Euro Weekly Digest Momentum building into the year's end
2025 Dec 04 The Wide Angle November dbDataInsights survey – Expectations are anchored on average
2025 Nov 28 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB hike looks further away
2025 Nov 27 ECB Watcher October accounts – Food for thought
2025 Nov 27 Europe Chart Of The Week Who's feeling uncertain now?
2025 Nov 27 Europe Blog Euro area resilience: The latest credit signal
2025 Nov 21 Euro Weekly Digest Euro area activity data are both resilient and divergent
2025 Nov 19 Europe Chart Of The Week Defying Expectations: Domestic Demand Fuels Resilient Growth
2025 Nov 14 Euro Weekly Digest A lift from pricey airfares
2025 Nov 14 Europe Chart Of The Week Rethinking inflation expectations: Confidence is key
2025 Nov 07 Euro Weekly Digest Latest activity data are a mixed bag, but not enough to change the signal
2025 Nov 06 The Wide Angle October dbDataInsights survey – Inflation expectations and labour market sentiment ease
2025 Oct 31 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB seems a little more confident about growth
2025 Oct 30 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A resilient pause
2025 Oct 28 Europe Blog Bank Lending Survey: Transmission in focus
2025 Oct 24 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Deepening vs lengthening
2025 Oct 24 Europe Chart Of The Week The French connection: Higher funding costs, slower growth
2025 Oct 17 Europe Chart Of The Week AI signals and the ECB: Will the less dovish trend hold?
2025 Oct 10 Focus Europe Forecast Update: Same yet different
2025 Oct 10 Euro Weekly Digest French budget deadline, and adjusting optimism on German growth
2025 Oct 09 ECB Watcher September accounts – The good place
2025 Oct 06 The Wide Angle September dbDataInsights survey – Inflation expectations rebound, labour market sentiment weakens
2025 Oct 06 Europe Blog What Germany and France mean for the European outlook
2025 Oct 03 Euro Weekly Digest Survey data signals economy continuing to grow, slowly
2025 Oct 02 Europe Chart Of The Week Transmission lines: Powering monetary policy
2025 Sep 26 Euro Weekly Digest The devil is in the details
2025 Sep 25 Europe Chart Of The Week Taking the lead: Soft surveys vs robust credit
2025 Sep 19 Euro Weekly Digest Iberian bloom, French gloom: Euro ratings reshuffle
2025 Sep 19 Europe Chart Of The Week Fiscal who's who: How's my rating?
2025 Sep 12 Euro Weekly Digest A new Prime Minister in France, the same policy signals from the ECB
2025 Sep 12 Europe Chart Of The Week Inflation dispersion: Hawks hiding in the wings?
2025 Sep 11 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Still in a good place
2025 Sep 09 Fixed Income Blog September ECB: maintaining or moderating the hawkish message
2025 Sep 05 Euro Weekly Digest This week's data releases won't move the needle ahead of the ECB next week
2025 Sep 05 Focus Europe ECB Preview: In a good place
2025 Sep 04 Europe Chart Of The Week The euro's appreciation: A dovish signal or business as usual for the ECB? (1 Page)
2025 Sep 04 The Wide Angle August dbDataInsights survey – Softening inflation expectations does not necessarily mean expectations are deanchoring
2025 Sep 02 Focus Europe ECB and FX: Not all appreciation is the same
2025 Sep 01 Focus Europe Taking the pulse: Where next for Europe?
2025 Aug 29 Euro Weekly Digest Mixed inflation data won't unite the ECB's divergent views on inflation risks
2025 Aug 29 Focus Europe Strong private-sector balance sheets will help limit inflation's undershoot
2025 Aug 28 ECB Watcher Accounts of the June strategy review and July policy meetings
2025 Aug 22 Euro Weekly Digest German GDP surprise breaks up the summer lull
2025 Aug 15 Euro Weekly Digest Fashion and holidays seems to explain the July inflation miss
2025 Aug 15 Europe Chart Of The Week Is monetary policy working? Looking beneath the surface of HICP
2025 Aug 08 Euro Weekly Digest A slow news week won't spoil the ECB's summer holiday
2025 Aug 07 Europe Chart Of The Week So it begins: The first dent in EU-US trade emerges
2025 Aug 01 Euro Weekly Digest Tariff clarity help us to update our ECB call – terminal rate 2%
2025 Aug 01 The Wide Angle July dbDataInsights survey – Softening inflation expectations is a reminder there is still a risk of another ECB rate cut
2025 Jul 29 Europe Blog ECB Call Update: 2% terminal rate, further easing only a risk
2025 Jul 28 Focus Europe EU-US trade deal: What it means
2025 Jul 25 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB's focus on the medium term means the bar to another cut is higher
2025 Jul 24 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: An increasingly terminal easing cycle
2025 Jul 23 Europe Chart Of The Week Q2 Bank Lending Survey – Ongoing support for domestic resilience
2025 Jul 18 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB gets ready to pause, but for how long?
2025 Jul 18 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Risks opening up
2025 Jul 17 Europe Chart Of The Week Cautious resilience: The case of private consumption
2025 Jul 11 Europe Blog US tariffs and Europe: Where We Stand
2025 Jul 04 Euro Weekly Digest Domestic economy still looks resilient as it prepares for the tariff deadline
2025 Jul 03 Europe Chart Of The Week French inflation: should the underlying weakness be a cause for concern?
2025 Jul 03 ECB Watcher June accounts – “A good place”, but also an uncertain place
2025 Jul 03 Focus Europe Italy vs France: Assessing sovereign risk dynamics
2025 Jul 02 The Wide Angle June dbDataInsights survey – Households relax a little ahead of July's tariff deadline
2025 Jun 27 Euro Weekly Digest The German Government and NATO outline their spending plans
2025 Jun 26 Focus Europe Labour Market Chartbook: Decoding the ECB's resilience narrative
2025 Jun 23 Europe Blog ECB and oil ambiguity
2025 Jun 20 Euro Weekly Digest Will energy drive the next shock?
2025 Jun 19 Europe Chart Of The Week Crude Awakening
2025 Jun 13 Euro Weekly Digest "In a good position" on rates does not necessarily mean in a final position
2025 Jun 12 Europe Chart Of The Week Risk Reversal: Why Ireland's boost to Euro Area GDP may not persist
2025 Jun 06 Euro Weekly Digest ECB thinks it is "in a good position"
2025 Jun 05 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: The end, or the beginning of the end?
2025 Jun 05 Europe Chart Of The Week EU GDP and US tariffs – Uncertainty truly is the watchword
2025 Jun 03 The Wide Angle May dbDataInsights survey – Households are still concerned about tariffs
2025 Jun 03 Focus Europe Forecast Update: Shocks, resilience and exceptionalism
2025 May 30 Euro Weekly Digest Trade tensions cast a shadow over the ECB's next policy meeting
2025 May 30 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Elevated uncertainty, cautious cutting
2025 May 29 Europe Chart Of The Week Will rating agencies close the Italy-France gap?
2025 May 23 Euro Weekly Digest Tariff Threat
2025 May 22 ECB Watcher April accounts – Dovish despite rates no longer being restrictive
2025 May 16 Euro Weekly Digest ECB hawks express their unease about cuts beyond June
2025 May 09 Euro Weekly Digest Tariff front-running obscures underlying trends in the data
2025 May 08 Europe Chart Of The Week Tariffs and pharma: What went up…will (eventually) come down
2025 May 08 Europe Blog Macro tensions: Disinflation vs. Resilience
2025 May 02 Euro Weekly Digest Both GDP and HICP surprise to the upside. But ECB unlikely to be worried
2025 May 02 Europe Chart Of The Week Looking for a tariff shock? Keep an eye on global value chains
2025 Apr 30 The Wide Angle April dbDataInsights survey – Quantifying household views on tariffs
2025 Apr 30 Europe Blog ECB monetary policy strategy: The nimbleness principle
2025 Apr 29 Europe Blog Resilience: Bank lending flows are supporting the domestic economy
2025 Apr 25 Euro Weekly Digest Survey data paint a mixed first picture of the post-tariff world
2025 Apr 25 Europe Blog Resilience: Net interest income and the path of ECB policy
2025 Apr 24 Europe Chart Of The Week The Great Export Divide – Downside Risks For the EA?
2025 Apr 17 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Follow the data
2025 Apr 17 Europe Chart Of The Week The complexity shock around the corner
2025 Apr 11 Euro Weekly Digest Even with the US tariff pause, the arguments clearly favour a rate cut
2025 Apr 11 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Doing what needs to be done
2025 Apr 11 Europe Chart Of The Week The 90-day tariff pause: Who Wins and Loses in Europe?
2025 Apr 10 Focus Europe What the data reveal about "meaningfully less restrictive" policy
2025 Apr 08 Europe Blog FCI Update: Assessing financial conditions after the trade shock
2025 Apr 04 Euro Weekly Digest Waiting for Europe's response to the tariffs
2025 Apr 04 Europe Chart Of The Week US tariffs and the outlook for Europe
2025 Apr 03 Focus Europe What now? Assessing the Impact of US Reciprocal Tariffs on Europe
2025 Apr 03 ECB Watcher Tariffs keep an April cut alive, despite heightened uncertainty
2025 Apr 02 Focus Europe dbDIG: Long-term inflation expectations on the rise in Germany
2025 Mar 28 Euro Weekly Digest A lull before the tariff storm
2025 Mar 28 Europe Chart Of The Week VAT's Up With Auto Tariffs? Assessing the impact on Europe
2025 Mar 21 Euro Weekly Digest A new German outlook
2025 Mar 20 Europe Chart Of The Week Tariffs and inflation expectations: A transatlantic divide
2025 Mar 11 Europe Blog Tariffs and the labour market: You want to trade jobs?
2025 Mar 07 Euro Weekly Digest Tiptoeing in a dark room
2025 Mar 06 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Policymaking in a dark room
2025 Mar 05 Europe Blog European Strategic Autonomy: How the ECB will be thinking
2025 Mar 04 Focus Europe dbDIG: A small rise in inflation expectations wont distract the ECB
2025 Mar 03 ECB Watcher Should “restrictive” stay, or should it go?
2025 Feb 28 Euro Weekly Digest Rates likely to be "restrictive" for now...
2025 Feb 28 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Navigating cross-currents, direction remains clear
2025 Feb 28 Focus Europe Trade War: Revisiting The Impact of Tariffs
2025 Feb 27 ECB Watcher DB AI: January ECB Accounts
2025 Feb 27 Europe Chart Of The Week In a state of (job) insecurity
2025 Feb 21 Euro Weekly Digest Germany goes to the polls
2025 Feb 19 Europe Chart Of The Week Defending Europe: Course constrained
2025 Feb 14 Euro Weekly Digest Weak December IP data may challenge the ECB's Q1 growth forecast
2025 Feb 13 Europe Chart Of The Week Energy prices and the two-sided risks to HICP inflation
2025 Feb 07 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB – Neutral on neutral (rate)
2025 Feb 07 Focus Europe dbDIG: Softening inflation expectations and labor market will help the ECB
2025 Feb 06 Europe Chart Of The Week Mind the (price) gap: will goods catch up or services catch down?
2025 Jan 31 Euro Weekly Digest France's moment of truth
2025 Jan 31 Focus Europe Defending Europe (Part 3) : The economic capacity
2025 Jan 30 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: No reason to pause
2025 Jan 30 Europe Chart Of The Week Spanish Surprise: Defying Economic Gravity (1 Page)
2025 Jan 24 Euro Weekly Digest Positive PMI surprise. But is it just manufacturing front-running tariffs?
2025 Jan 23 Webinar ECB and European Macro Risk Call (1 Page)
2025 Jan 23 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Confidence vs uncertainty
2025 Jan 17 Euro Weekly Digest Dovish… but not too dovish
2025 Jan 16 ECB Watcher DB AI: December ECB Accounts
2025 Jan 10 Euro Weekly Digest Rise in inflation and expectations should not concern the ECB
2025 Jan 08 Europe Blog dbDIG: Inflation expectations ended the year on a softer note
2024 Dec 13 Euro Weekly Digest ECB looks to more easing by removing hawkish language
2024 Dec 13 Focus Europe DB AI: Scoring ECB hawkishness
2024 Dec 12 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: More easing ahead with maximal optionality
2024 Dec 09 ECB Watcher Many uncertainties – Tariffs, undershooting, and the neutral rate
2024 Dec 06 Euro Weekly Digest Expecting another 25bp ECB rate cut to finish off the year
2024 Dec 06 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Uncertainty, compromise and optionality
2024 Dec 04 Europe Blog dbDIG: Household expectations allow for further gradual policy easing
2024 Dec 02 Focus Europe Outlook 2025: Threatening Divergence
2024 Nov 29 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation data probably wont faze the ECB
2024 Nov 22 Euro Weekly Digest Weak PMI data lead the market to reconsider the risk of 50bps
2024 Nov 06 Focus Europe ECB Call Update: Lowering the central-case terminal rate to 1.50%
2024 Nov 01 Euro Weekly Digest ECB receives a treat in GDP and inflation data
2024 Nov 01 Europe Blog dbDIG: Stabilising inflation expectations, softening labour market
2024 Oct 25 Euro Weekly Digest 50bp ECB cut is on the table
2024 Oct 25 Europe Blog Impulse indicators: Credit where credit is due
2024 Oct 24 Focus Europe Labour Market Chartbook: Beginning to turn
2024 Oct 18 Euro Weekly Digest Disinflation "well on track" as the ECB pivots to faster normalisation
2024 Oct 17 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Initiating the pivot
2024 Oct 15 ECB Watcher Accelerating to back-to-back cuts
2024 Oct 11 Euro Weekly Digest French finances, and a pivot from the ECB
2024 Oct 11 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Pivot point
2024 Oct 10 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – September 2024
2024 Oct 08 Focus Europe Passing peak transmission: Revisiting the impact of the ECB's monetary cycle
2024 Oct 04 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation eases, ECB to follow suit
2024 Oct 01 Europe Blog dbDIG: Inflation expectations stable, labour sentiment softening
2024 Oct 01 Focus Europe ECB Call Update: No reason to wait
2024 Sep 27 Euro Weekly Digest Shaky data back our change in ECB call
2024 Sep 26 Focus Europe ECB Call Update: Moving into the fast lane
2024 Sep 20 Euro Weekly Digest ECB hawks talk down the chances of an October cut
2024 Sep 13 Euro Weekly Digest ECB stays coy about future policy, and signs of labour market softening
2024 Sep 12 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Retaining optionality
2024 Sep 10 ECB Watcher Recent data bumps won’t change the ECB’s medium-term outlook
2024 Sep 06 Euro Weekly Digest Soft activity data to help the ECB carry through with a cut next week
2024 Sep 06 Focus Europe ECB Preview: If it ain’t broke
2024 Sep 03 Europe Blog dbDIG: Well anchored long-term expectations continue trending lower
2024 Sep 03 Focus Europe What if? The Impact of Proposed US Tariffs on European Growth & Inflation
2024 Aug 30 Euro Weekly Digest The Olympics creates a bump in services inflation data
2024 Aug 29 Europe Blog ECB outlook (3): How far to cut
2024 Aug 28 Europe Blog ECB outlook (2): How quickly to cut
2024 Aug 27 Europe Blog ECB outlook (1): Balance of risks shifting
2024 Aug 23 Euro Weekly Digest French Olympic buzz masks German manufacturing weakness
2024 Aug 22 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – July 2024
2024 Aug 16 Euro Weekly Digest Basking in the Spanish sun
2024 Aug 09 Euro Weekly Digest Slower, lower, weaker: Not a gold medal performance yet
2024 Aug 05 Europe Blog dbDIG: July expectations data to give ECB further comfort for September cut
2024 Jul 26 Euro Weekly Digest Survey data do not look great for the GDP print next week
2024 Jul 26 Focus Europe Europe Economics: All you need to know
2024 Jul 22 Euro Weekly Digest On a bumpy road to September
2024 Jul 18 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: On course for a September cut
2024 Jul 12 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB will not be in a rush next week
2024 Jul 12 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Rate cuts ahead (timing TBD)
2024 Jul 12 ECB Watcher Waiting for more data to illuminate the road back to 2% inflation
2024 Jul 11 Europe Blog French politics and the macro data impact: what to watch
2024 Jul 10 Europe Blog dbDIG: Households expect the labour market to soften
2024 Jul 05 Euro Weekly Digest Growth signals remain weak
2024 Jul 04 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – June 2024
2024 Jul 01 Europe Blog dbDIG: The journey of inflation expectations also has bumps
2024 Jun 28 Euro Weekly Digest France heads to the polls, the ECB heads to Sintra
2024 Jun 21 Euro Weekly Digest 7 new EDPs including France and Italy
2024 Jun 19 Focus Europe Contagion: risk vs response, redux
2024 Jun 14 Euro Weekly Digest Election fever sweeps European markets
2024 Jun 10 Europe Blog France: snap legislative election implications
2024 Jun 07 Euro Weekly Digest ECB delivers the expected rate cut, but keeps it hawkish
2024 Jun 06 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A maximum optionality easing cycle
2024 Jun 03 Europe Blog dbDIG: Inflation expectations help open the door for the ECB to start easing
2024 May 31 Euro Weekly Digest June's choice is straightforward for the ECB. But what comes after?
2024 May 31 Focus Europe ECB Preview: An easing cycle, one small step at a time
2024 May 30 ECB Watcher Negotiated wages fail to bump the ECB off course
2024 May 24 Euro Weekly Digest Looking through any bumps in the data
2024 May 10 Euro Weekly Digest Data dependence means not overly focusing on one data point
2024 May 10 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – April 2024
2024 May 08 ECB Watcher What comes after June’s cut?
2024 May 03 Euro Weekly Digest A positive growth surprise
2024 May 02 Europe Blog Financial conditions (5): Conclusions – Passing peak transmission
2024 May 01 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: Building towards a consumption recovery
2024 May 01 Europe Blog Financial conditions (4): Tracking transmission into economic activity
2024 Apr 30 Europe Blog Financial conditions (3): Flowing downstream into NII
2024 Apr 26 Euro Weekly Digest Financial conditions have passed the peak
2024 Apr 26 Europe Blog Financial conditions (2): The beginnings of a new bank credit cycle
2024 Apr 26 Europe Blog ECB and a June rethink: A high bar
2024 Apr 25 Europe Blog Financial conditions (1): A suite of market-based FCIs
2024 Apr 19 Euro Weekly Digest Updated call has ECB gradually stepping into an uncertain easing cycle
2024 Apr 15 Focus Europe ECB Call Update: Into the unknown
2024 Apr 12 Euro Weekly Digest Steady as she goes. On track for a June cut
2024 Apr 11 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: 'The direction is clear'
2024 Apr 08 ECB Watcher Getting ready for the first cut
2024 Apr 05 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation surprise not enough to justify an April cut
2024 Apr 05 Focus Europe ECB Preview: An ‘options open’ easing cycle
2024 Apr 04 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – March 2024
2024 Apr 03 Focus Europe ECB: Data dependent, not Fed dependent
2024 Apr 02 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: What will be the real income impact?
2024 Mar 28 Euro Weekly Digest Clocks to spring forward. But the economy might not be as quick
2024 Mar 22 Euro Weekly Digest ECB gives its watchers more comments about June
2024 Mar 21 ECB Watcher Preparing a June cut, but no guidance beyond that
2024 Mar 15 Euro Weekly Digest ECB floors it
2024 Mar 08 Euro Weekly Digest Strongest indications yet June cut is the ECB's baseline
2024 Mar 07 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: On course for a June cut
2024 Mar 05 ECB Watcher Gradual cuts beginning in June seems to be the baseline
2024 Mar 04 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: Resuming normalisation
2024 Mar 01 Focus Europe ECB Preview: What’s the rush?
2024 Feb 27 Focus Europe Private sector balance sheets and the peak transmission question
2024 Feb 23 Euro Weekly Digest Slow progress towards rate cuts
2024 Feb 22 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – January 2024
2024 Feb 16 Euro Weekly Digest Resilience means a more cautious ECB
2024 Feb 16 Focus Europe Forecast Update: ECB to proceed with caution
2024 Feb 13 ECB Watcher Hawks and Doves begin converging towards a gradual pace of cuts
2024 Feb 12 Euro Weekly Digest Data show a wobbly start to the year
2024 Feb 02 Euro Weekly Digest Recession avoided, but domestic demand is looking weak
2024 Feb 01 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: Normalisation may be stalling
2024 Jan 26 Euro Weekly Digest A dovish shift, but more confidence needed before cuts start
2024 Jan 25 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Dovish shift keeps ECB on track for an April cut
2024 Jan 23 Europe Blog BLS: Is transmission peaking too soon?
2024 Jan 22 ECB Watcher When will the ECB have enough data to cut?
2024 Jan 19 Euro Weekly Digest ECB closes the door to Q1 cuts, but leaves the door to Q2 open
2024 Jan 18 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – December 2023
2024 Jan 17 Focus Europe ECB Preview: In no rush, yet
2024 Jan 12 Euro Weekly Digest ECB Hawks are not backing down
2024 Jan 08 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: A modest and narrow increase in December
2024 Jan 05 Euro Weekly Digest Data point to a gloomy winter ahead
2023 Dec 15 Euro Weekly Digest The ECB sees little to be merry about this Christmas
2023 Dec 14 Focus Europe ECB & BoE Reaction: On guard, for now
2023 Dec 12 Focus Europe Outlook 2024: Shifting sands
2023 Dec 11 ECB Watcher Lower inflation brings some Christmas cheer
2023 Dec 08 Euro Weekly Digest ECB to maintain their messaging, but not for much longer
2023 Dec 06 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Earlier, faster, further, bolder
2023 Dec 01 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation falling like a stone
2023 Dec 01 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: Weaker expectations add relief for the ECB
2023 Nov 24 Euro Weekly Digest Fiscal policy in the spotlight
2023 Nov 23 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – October 2023
2023 Nov 17 Euro Weekly Digest Is labour market resilience fading?
2023 Nov 17 Europe Blog ECB and monetary transmission: pause and assess
2023 Nov 14 Europe Blog Labour market resilience: worthy of closer monitoring
2023 Nov 10 Euro Weekly Digest Finding the middle path is all about balance (sheet)
2023 Nov 03 Euro Weekly Digest Beware the data downturn
2023 Nov 01 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: Expectations down, Spain weakening
2023 Oct 31 Europe Blog ECB Update: Accelerating first cut to Jun-24
2023 Oct 27 Euro Weekly Digest No PEPP in their step
2023 Oct 26 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A steady and cautious hand on the policy tiller
2023 Oct 23 ECB Watcher Balance sheet consolidation: APP vs PEPP vs minimum reserves
2023 Oct 20 Euro Weekly Digest PMIs and BLS to give colour on growth outlook ahead of ECB meeting
2023 Oct 20 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Rates on hold, balance sheet under review
2023 Oct 13 Focus Europe Europe Economics: All you need to know
2023 Oct 13 Euro Weekly Digest Although a "solid majority" supported the hike, it was still a "close call"
2023 Oct 12 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – September 2023
2023 Oct 06 Euro Weekly Digest A small contraction in Q3 GDP now seems likely
2023 Oct 06 Focus Europe Follow the money (revisited): Net interest income and transmission
2023 Oct 03 Focus Europe Forecast Update: Stagnant GDP, persistent HICP, patient ECB
2023 Oct 02 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations: Long-term expectations on the rise
2023 Sep 29 Euro Weekly Digest Disinflation stronger than expected
2023 Sep 22 Euro Weekly Digest Mixed PMIs highlight the degree of divergence in the euro area
2023 Sep 15 Euro Weekly Digest Having hiked to 4%, the ECB now begins it pause
2023 Sep 14 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: The long pause begins
2023 Sep 12 ECB Watcher Governing Council has kept its options wide open for September
2023 Sep 08 Euro Weekly Digest ECB does not want a pause to be automatically interpreted as the peak
2023 Sep 08 Focus Europe ECB Preview: An uncertain pause
2023 Sep 01 Euro Weekly Digest ECB tempers its hawkish stance
2023 Sep 01 Europe Blog ECB communications and buying ‘higher and longer’ optionality
2023 Aug 31 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – July 2023
2023 Aug 30 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – August 2023 update
2023 Aug 25 Euro Weekly Digest Growth concerns to challenge but not derail the ECB's hawkish bias
2023 Aug 24 Europe Blog Where next? Three questions to shape the economic cycle
2023 Aug 22 Europe Blog Without prejudice: Price stability in a world of competing objectives
2023 Aug 04 Euro Weekly Digest Balance of risks slowly shifting away from the hawks
2023 Aug 04 Europe Blog Credit impulse: A weak underlying pulse
2023 Jul 31 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – July 2023 update
2023 Jul 28 Euro Weekly Digest Is this the end for ECB hikes?
2023 Jul 27 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A low-conviction peak
2023 Jul 26 Europe Blog EA banking and money data: Orderly but forceful transmission of ECB policy
2023 Jul 24 ECB Watcher July "a necessity", September "a possibility"
2023 Jul 21 Euro Weekly Digest ECB to hike again. Spain goes to the polls
2023 Jul 20 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Higher-and-longer optionality
2023 Jul 14 Euro Weekly Digest Soft growth may make it harder to tighten the fiscal purse
2023 Jul 13 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – June 2023
2023 Jul 04 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – June 2023 update
2023 Jun 30 Euro Weekly Digest ECB reaction function keeps upside risk to the terminal rate amid weak-ish data
2023 Jun 23 Euro Weekly Digest PMIs highlight weakness in euro area growth
2023 Jun 16 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation "too high for too long"
2023 Jun 15 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: 4% in September remains distinctly possible
2023 Jun 09 Euro Weekly Digest Recession is not enough to slow a hawkish ECB
2023 Jun 08 Focus Europe ECB Preview: A little higher, a lot longer
2023 Jun 07 ECB Watcher Quantifying the hawkish tilt of the ECB
2023 Jun 05 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – May 2023 update
2023 Jun 05 Focus Europe Forecast Update: Weak growth, sticky inflation, hawkish ECB
2023 Jun 02 Euro Weekly Digest ECB cannot be complacent about the inflation outlook
2023 Jun 01 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – May 2023
2023 May 26 Euro Weekly Digest Concerning growth signals
2023 May 19 Euro Weekly Digest Underlying inflation at a slow turning point through mid-2023
2023 May 12 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation expectations rise supports the hawkish rhetoric from the ECB
2023 May 05 Euro Weekly Digest A hawkish 25bp hike signals more ECB decisions to come
2023 May 05 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – April 2023 update
2023 May 04 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: 3.75% terminal rate, with upside risks
2023 May 03 Europe Blog Conditions for a downshift: ECB vs Fed
2023 May 03 ECB Watcher Mixed data lead to a showdown between the hawks and doves
2023 Apr 28 Euro Weekly Digest A tight call for the ECB next week
2023 Apr 28 Focus Europe ECB Preview: This tightening cycle is not over yet
2023 Apr 21 Euro Weekly Digest Growth momentum keeps data on the hawkish side
2023 Apr 20 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – March 2023
2023 Apr 14 Euro Weekly Digest Preparing the ground for the May hike
2023 Apr 05 Focus Europe dbDIG – New financial and labour market sentiment indices
2023 Apr 04 ECB Watcher Financial stress vs strong underlying inflation pressures
2023 Apr 03 Euro Weekly Digest Downside inflation surprise and weak bank credit to slow but not stop the ECB
2023 Mar 29 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – March 2023 update
2023 Mar 24 Euro Weekly Digest Financial stress vs solid growth momentum
2023 Mar 22 Focus Europe What the banking stress means for the economy and the ECB
2023 Mar 17 Euro Weekly Digest Full data dependence as ECB watches risks of stronger transmission
2023 Mar 16 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Appropriately balanced communications
2023 Mar 14 Europe Blog ECB Update: Dialling back, temporarily
2023 Mar 10 Euro Weekly Digest How will the ECB balance hawkish intent and data dependence?
2023 Mar 09 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Prepared to climb further
2023 Mar 07 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – February 2023 update
2023 Mar 03 Euro Weekly Digest Data signals point to tough decisions ahead for the ECB
2023 Mar 02 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – February 2023
2023 Feb 24 Euro Weekly Digest Revising up our inflation and terminal rate views
2023 Feb 22 ECB Watcher Hawkish tone consistent with higher and later terminal rate
2023 Feb 21 Europe Blog ECB Update: Raising our terminal rate call 50bp to 3.75%
2023 Feb 13 Focus Europe Europe Economics: All you need to know
2023 Feb 13 Europe Blog ECB terminal rate: Data dependence and a 3.25-3.75% landing zone
2023 Feb 10 Euro Weekly Digest No recession, but Europe still faces economic and political challenges
2023 Feb 03 Euro Weekly Digest Still more work to do - Towards the next phase of the tightening cycle
2023 Feb 03 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – January 2023 update
2023 Feb 02 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Preparing the ground for the third and final stage of hiking
2023 Feb 01 Europe Blog (Big) Bang for your buck: Modelling the impact of ECB policy tightening
2023 Jan 27 Euro Weekly Digest Skirting winter recession but headwinds ahead
2023 Jan 26 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Persistent inflation means restrictive policy
2023 Jan 25 ECB Watcher Eyeing core inflation like a hawk
2023 Jan 20 Euro Weekly Digest ECB aims to 'stay the course' on policy tightening
2023 Jan 19 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – December 2022
2023 Jan 18 Europe Blog What history tell us the ECB will have to do to defeat inflation
2023 Jan 13 Euro Weekly Digest Improving growth outlook vs easing inflation expectations
2023 Jan 06 Euro Weekly Digest Headline inflation decline unlikely to stem ECB hawkishness
2023 Jan 06 Europe Blog Terminal rates and the ECB’s hawkish intent
2023 Jan 05 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – December 2022 update
2022 Dec 15 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Downshifting into a longer climb to a higher terminal rate
2022 Dec 12 Focus Europe Outlook 2023: As sure as night follows day
2022 Dec 06 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – November 2022 update
2022 Dec 06 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Downshift and climb – how to implement a hawkish pivot
2022 Dec 02 Euro Weekly Digest Near-term ammunition for the doves
2022 Nov 25 Euro Weekly Digest Fiscal policy won't make the ECB's job any easier
2022 Nov 24 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – October 2022
2022 Nov 22 ECB Watcher Pace under debate, but agreement about the need to tighten further
2022 Nov 18 Euro Weekly Digest Wage and activity data is not enough to signal a lower terminal rate
2022 Nov 11 Euro Weekly Digest Difficulties of striking the policy balance
2022 Nov 04 Euro Weekly Digest Balancing between high inflation and high uncertainty
2022 Nov 01 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – October 2022 update
2022 Oct 28 Euro Weekly Digest Data challenges a dovish take on the ECB meeting
2022 Oct 27 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Moving to the second stage of exit
2022 Oct 26 Europe Blog Is there room for the ECB to maintain its pace of hiking?
2022 Oct 21 Euro Weekly Digest ECB to look at the next stage in the tightening cycle
2022 Oct 21 Focus Europe Stage Two Exit - Rate hikes and balance sheet contraction
2022 Oct 19 ECB Watcher Actively thinking about balance sheet consolidation
2022 Oct 14 Euro Weekly Digest ECB watchful of the extent of fiscal support
2022 Oct 07 Euro Weekly Digest Little to dissuade another 75bp hike in October
2022 Oct 06 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – September 2022
2022 Sep 30 Euro Weekly Digest Fiscal support should be "targeted", "temporary", and "tailored
2022 Sep 30 Europe Blog Updated ECB Call: Lifting the terminal rate to 3%
2022 Sep 30 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – September 2022 update
2022 Sep 26 dbInSights Podcast Forecast Update: Deeper inflationary recession (1 Page)
2022 Sep 23 Euro Weekly Digest Expecting a deeper recession
2022 Sep 22 ECB Watcher Price stability is the priority
2022 Sep 21 Focus Europe Forecast Update: Deeper inflationary recession
2022 Sep 16 Euro Weekly Digest Energy proposals will not prevent recession
2022 Sep 09 Euro Weekly Digest Rates "so far away" from appropriate level
2022 Sep 08 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Updated Call – Another 75bp in October
2022 Sep 07 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – August 2022 update
2022 Sep 06 ECB Watcher Hawks push for a 75bp hike, doves for a more orderly pace
2022 Sep 02 Focus Europe ECB Preview: An expeditious hiking cycle
2022 Aug 26 Euro Weekly Digest Solidifying 50bp September hike expectations
2022 Aug 25 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – July 2022
2022 Aug 19 Euro Weekly Digest Not alleviating the ECB's concerns
2022 Aug 18 Focus Europe Calibrating the next ECB hike
2022 Aug 10 Europe Blog dbDIG Europe: July 2022 update
2022 Aug 09 Europe Blog Financial Conditions: Tightening, fast and slow
2022 Jul 29 Euro Weekly Digest Don't give up on ECB hawkishness
2022 Jul 27 Europe Blog Common Inflation Expectations – Peak vs Persistence
2022 Jul 22 Euro Weekly Digest Speedy lift-off despite recession risks
2022 Jul 21 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: 50bp liftoff and the Transmission Protection Instrument
2022 Jul 15 Euro Weekly Digest A rocky road ahead
2022 Jul 15 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – June 2022 update
2022 Jul 14 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Holding Course
2022 Jul 12 ECB Watcher Latest Council commentary focussed on new anti-fragmentation tool
2022 Jul 08 Euro Weekly Digest Strengthening inflation and weakening activity keeps pressure on the ECB
2022 Jul 07 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – June 2022
2022 Jun 24 Euro Weekly Digest Growth risks in greater focus
2022 Jun 21 ECB Watcher Anti-fragmentation “right at core of mandate” for the ECB
2022 Jun 17 Euro Weekly Digest Countering fragmentation
2022 Jun 15 Europe Blog ECB deploys anti-fragmentation tools – allowing third 50bp hike by year-end
2022 Jun 10 Euro Weekly Digest ECB opens the door to a faster tightening cycle
2022 Jun 09 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Updated Call – A second 50bp hike before year-end
2022 Jun 08 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations – May 2022 update
2022 May 31 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Updated Call – A 50bp hike by September
2022 May 27 Euro Weekly Digest Detailing the ECB's exit path
2022 May 24 ECB Watcher Lagarde’s normalisation plan endorses market pricing, but upside risks
2022 May 20 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation to test the ECB's resolve
2022 May 19 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – April 2022
2022 May 17 Europe Blog dbDIG inflation expectations and the difficulties in forecasting inflation
2022 May 13 Euro Weekly Digest Coalescing on a July hike
2022 May 09 ECB Watcher A July hike is “reasonable”, “justified", “possible”, even “probable”
2022 May 06 Euro Weekly Digest Threatened growth
2022 Apr 29 Euro Weekly Digest Data flow shifts the likely timing of ECB liftoff
2022 Apr 29 Europe Blog Updated ECB Call: A midsummer liftoff
2022 Apr 22 Euro Weekly Digest Talk of a July liftoff for the ECB intensifies
2022 Apr 20 Europe Blog Inflation expectations highlight risk of second-round effects
2022 Apr 14 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Another step closer to liftoff
2022 Apr 11 ECB Watcher Normalisation may not be enough
2022 Apr 08 Euro Weekly Digest A hawkish preamble to April's ECB meeting
2022 Apr 07 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – March 2022
2022 Apr 07 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Updated Call – Higher and earlier terminal rate
2022 Apr 06 Europe Blog dbDIG: Signs of Ukraine conflict impacting European households (2)
2022 Apr 01 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation up, economic confidence down
2022 Mar 25 Euro Weekly Digest Resilient activity, downbeat sentiment
2022 Mar 25 Focus Europe Expanding our euro area underlying inflation toolkit
2022 Mar 25 Europe Blog dbDIG: Signs of Ukraine conflict impacting European households
2022 Mar 22 Europe Blog Podcast: ECB - The path to liftoff (1 Page)
2022 Mar 21 ECB Watcher Inflation is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic dynamics
2022 Mar 18 Euro Weekly Digest Lagarde mentions the possibility of new stability instruments
2022 Mar 17 Europe Blog ECB: The path to liftoff
2022 Mar 11 Euro Weekly Digest Committed to price stability
2022 Mar 10 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: The dominance of price stability
2022 Mar 07 Focus Europe Ukraine shock: Tracking the transmission into growth
2022 Mar 07 ECB Watcher The Ukraine conflict may delay normalisation, but wont derail it
2022 Mar 04 Euro Weekly Digest Ukraine conflict casts a shadow over the ECB meeting
2022 Mar 03 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Ensuring price stability and financial stability
2022 Mar 01 Europe Blog Inflation expectations highlight rising pressures
2022 Feb 25 Euro Weekly Digest Ukraine conflict casts uncertainty over Europe
2022 Feb 22 ECB Watcher Ukraine situation adds uncertainty to path of monetary normalisation
2022 Feb 18 Euro Weekly Digest Increasing confidence on 2% in the medium-term
2022 Feb 11 Euro Weekly Digest ECB to exit 'step-by-step' in 2022
2022 Feb 04 Euro Weekly Digest Hawkish pivot raises prospect of earlier liftoff
2022 Feb 04 Global Economic Perspectives Monetary conditions perspective on Fed, ECB and BoE pivots
2022 Feb 04 Europe Blog Inflation expectations continue to rise across Europe
2022 Feb 03 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Faster pivot – expect liftoff in September 2022
2022 Jan 31 ECB Watcher Data dependent approach does not rule out liftoff in 2022
2022 Jan 28 Euro Weekly Digest Expecting ECB lift-off in 2022
2022 Jan 26 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Step-by-step exit
2022 Jan 24 Focus Europe ECB Update: Expect liftoff in December 2022
2022 Jan 21 Euro Weekly Digest The start of 2022 political events
2022 Jan 20 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – December 2021
2022 Jan 14 Euro Weekly Digest Slower momentum into the New Year
2022 Jan 07 Euro Weekly Digest Adjusting our near-term inflation forecast
2022 Jan 07 Europe Blog An update on inflation expectations – January 2022
2021 Dec 17 Euro Weekly Digest New Year - new approach to policy optionality
2021 Dec 16 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A slow pivot to exit
2021 Dec 14 Focus Europe Shadow analysis: Looking ahead to policy-rate liftoff
2021 Dec 13 Focus Europe Outlook 2022: Inflation vigilance
2021 Dec 10 Euro Weekly Digest Omicron casts a shadow
2021 Dec 03 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation surprises not just about energy
2021 Dec 03 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Moving to a new policy stance, pandemic permitting
2021 Dec 01 Europe Blog What dbDIG tells us about inflation expectations – November survey wave
2021 Nov 26 Euro Weekly Digest Towards peak inflation
2021 Nov 25 Europe Blog What the ECB's monetary policy accounts tell us – October 2021
2021 Nov 19 Focus Europe ECB Update: Policy rate lift-off expected in December 2023
2021 Nov 19 Euro Weekly Digest Ammo for the hawks
2021 Nov 12 Euro Weekly Digest Doubts about ECB's unconventional policies emerging
2021 Nov 12 Europe Blog What dbDIG tells us about inflation expectations – October survey wave
2021 Nov 05 Euro Weekly Digest Escalating the rhetoric against market lift-off pricing
2021 Nov 05 UK economic notes Common inflation expectations in the UK
2021 Nov 01 Europe Blog Common inflation expectations in the euro area – October update
2021 Oct 29 Euro Weekly Digest A long way from stagflation
2021 Oct 28 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Not enough inflation, yet
2021 Oct 25 Focus Europe dbInsight Podcast: Previewing the October ECB meeting (1 Page)
2021 Oct 22 Euro Weekly Digest Market pricing vs forward guidance
2021 Oct 22 Europe Blog October PMIs: It's all about supply
2021 Oct 19 Focus Europe ECB Preview: The policy flexibility premium
2021 Oct 15 Euro Weekly Digest Visibility on ECB's policy options emerging
2021 Oct 15 Europe Blog What dbDIG tells us about inflation expectations
2021 Oct 08 Euro Weekly Digest Industrial constraints add downside risk to Q3 GDP
2021 Oct 01 Euro Weekly Digest Energy shock adds to uncertain outlook
2021 Sep 27 Focus Europe Assessing the impact of the gas price shock in Europe
2021 Sep 24 Euro Weekly Digest Election day in Germany
2021 Sep 17 Euro Weekly Digest Assessing the easing growth signal
2021 Sep 10 Euro Weekly Digest Moderately lower pace
2021 Sep 09 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Don’t call it tapering, but asset purchases are peaking
2021 Sep 03 Euro Weekly Digest A September "local adjustment"?
2021 Sep 02 Focus Europe ECB Preview: The inevitability of peak asset purchases
2021 Aug 27 Euro Weekly Digest End-of-summer moderation
2021 Aug 13 Euro Weekly Digest Europe riding the momentum
2021 Aug 10 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: Facing the Delta variant
2021 Jul 30 Euro Weekly Digest Faster-than-anticipated normalisation
2021 Jul 23 Euro Weekly Digest Aligning to the new strategy
2021 Jul 23 Focus Europe Common inflation expectations in the euro area
2021 Jul 22 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A partial dawning of a new era
2021 Jul 16 Euro Weekly Digest GDP growth may be peaking
2021 Jul 16 Focus Europe ECB Preview: New strategy, new guidance
2021 Jul 09 Euro Weekly Digest Awaiting implementation
2021 Jul 08 Focus Europe ECB: Important but modest changes to monetary policy strategy
2021 Jul 06 Focus Europe ECB Strategy Review: Where has inflation disappointed?
2021 Jul 05 Focus Europe ECB Strategy Review: How the new inflation target affects the policy stance
2021 Jul 02 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation to touch 3% at year-end
2021 Jul 02 Focus Europe ECB Strategy Review: Modest but important changes to inflation target
2021 Jun 25 Euro Weekly Digest Looking forward to a (more) normal summer
2021 Jun 21 Focus Europe Pandemic savings: A sharp and short-lived pent-up demand effect
2021 Jun 18 Euro Weekly Digest Green-lighting the recovery plans
2021 Jun 11 Euro Weekly Digest A (dovish) steady hand
2021 Jun 10 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: One dovish step at a time
2021 Jun 04 Euro Weekly Digest Waiting on the PEPP decision
2021 Jun 04 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Balancing act
2021 May 28 Euro Weekly Digest The doves speak out
2021 May 21 Euro Weekly Digest Remarkable Exuberance
2021 May 14 Euro Weekly Digest Don't count on the ECB accounts
2021 May 10 Europe Blog PEPP & NGEU: From complements to substitutes
2021 May 07 Euro Weekly Digest Vaccination success vs Supply constraints
2021 Apr 30 Euro Weekly Digest From resilience to rebound
2021 Apr 23 Euro Weekly Digest Recovery around the corner
2021 Apr 22 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: A staging point en route to June
2021 Apr 20 Focus Europe Podcast: ECB Strategy Review: Scoping out the landing zone (1 Page)
2021 Apr 16 Euro Weekly Digest Looking to the downstream conditions
2021 Apr 15 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Conscious decoupling
2021 Apr 09 Euro Weekly Digest Vaccination rates grow, but so do downside risks to Q1 GDP
2021 Apr 09 Focus Europe ECB Strategy Review: Scoping out the landing zone
2021 Mar 26 Euro Weekly Digest Will spring herald a sunnier outlook for the data?
2021 Mar 24 Europe Blog March flash PMIs: Defying the sceptics
2021 Mar 19 Euro Weekly Digest From lockdown gloom to Goldilocks recovery
2021 Mar 12 Euro Weekly Digest A little more PEPP in the step of the recovery
2021 Mar 11 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: The unintended consequences of PEPP flexibility
2021 Mar 08 Focus Europe Podcast: ECB Preview: A marathon, not a sprint (1 Page)
2021 Mar 05 Euro Weekly Digest Unwarranted yields vs justified optimism
2021 Mar 05 Focus Europe ECB Preview: A marathon, not a sprint
2021 Mar 01 Focus Europe EU Fiscal Rules: Escape vs Reform
2021 Feb 26 Euro Weekly Digest Watchful but not convinced
2021 Feb 19 Euro Weekly Digest Reflationary PMI signal vs ECB concern over underlying inflation
2021 Feb 12 Euro Weekly Digest Will Draghi outshine the ECB?
2021 Feb 05 Euro Weekly Digest Inflation surprise may be unrelated to resilient economy
2021 Feb 04 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: Adapting to life in lockdown
2021 Jan 29 Euro Weekly Digest Vaccine delays threaten to upset improved economic resilience
2021 Jan 22 Euro Weekly Digest Can Q4 GDP upside buy time for ECB clarity?
2021 Jan 21 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Compass, anchor and stormy seas for the reaction function
2021 Jan 15 Euro Weekly Digest Slow but busy start to 2021
2021 Jan 15 Focus Europe ECB Preview: 3 Questions
2021 Jan 05 Focus Europe 3 indicators to watch in 2021
2020 Dec 11 Euro Weekly Digest Beyond 2020
2020 Dec 10 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: The limits of monetary policy
2020 Dec 09 Focus Europe Deposit Facility Rate: To cut or not to cut?
2020 Dec 04 Euro Weekly Digest Decision time
2020 Dec 04 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Preserve stability, promote lending, push inflation
2020 Nov 30 Focus Europe Outlook 2021: Transformations
2020 Nov 27 Euro Weekly Digest How bad is 'lockdown lite'?
2020 Nov 20 Euro Weekly Digest Difficult discussions
2020 Nov 19 Focus Europe Forecast Update: From darkness into light
2020 Nov 13 Euro Weekly Digest Anticipating policy stimulus
2020 Nov 11 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (8) – Lockdown Lite
2020 Nov 06 Euro Weekly Digest Shifting attention back to growth challenges
2020 Oct 30 Euro Weekly Digest From Q3 sunshine to Q4 'lockdown lite'
2020 Oct 29 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Action decided, composition to follow
2020 Oct 29 UK Blog Updated Local Restrictions Index: only modest tightening from new restrictions
2020 Oct 23 Euro Weekly Digest Is the ECB getting worried about the second wave?
2020 Oct 23 Focus Europe Deal or no deal: the near-term economic impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU
2020 Oct 22 Focus Europe ECB Preview: The Cliff and the Ramp
2020 Oct 08 Europe Blog Dovish ECB accounts with more focus on the low inflation problem
2020 Sep 24 UK economic notes A Local Restrictions Index to track the second wave
2020 Sep 22 Europe Blog September PMIs: A test of the infections-mobility-activity nexus
2020 Sep 17 UK Blog 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme will be a boon for August GDP
2020 Sep 04 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Towards a more persistent policy easing
2020 Sep 03 Focus Europe Shadow analysis: Policy rules say further ECB easing required
2020 Aug 31 Europe Blog What next? 3 questions to influence the outlook
2020 Aug 27 Europe Blog A two-stage ECB easing cycle
2020 Aug 21 Europe Blog Mobility trends and why the PMIs should not have surprised
2020 Aug 04 Europe Blog EUR exchange rate appreciation: A new headwind?
2020 Jul 24 Focus Europe Warning: Step back from the cliff edge
2020 Jul 21 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (7) – Assessing the recovery
2020 Jul 20 Focus Europe Cycle dashboard: do not extrapolate this recovery
2020 Jul 16 Focus Europe ECB Reaction: Commitment and coordination
2020 Jul 09 Focus Europe ECB Preview: No time for complacency
2020 Jul 08 Focus Europe Shadow analysis: YCC and the ECB reaction function
2020 Jun 23 Focus Europe Cycle Dashboard: Rebounding, but how far?
2020 Jun 23 Focus Europe Bank credit, economic growth and the COVID shock: an adjusted perspective
2020 Jun 17 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (6) — Furloughed workers
2020 Jun 04 Focus Europe ECB: Controlled response
2020 May 29 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Crisis management
2020 May 21 Special Report COVID-19: Policy responses by G20 economies (10) - $14trn and counting
2020 May 14 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (5)
2020 May 07 Focus Europe COVID shock: From bad to worse
2020 Apr 30 Focus Europe ECB: Hit and miss
2020 Apr 27 Focus Europe Grants or Loans? There is a big difference for Italian public finances
2020 Apr 27 Focus Europe ECB Preview: More to do
2020 Apr 23 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on Employment
2020 Apr 20 Focus Europe COVID, survey indicators and GDP: A non-linear relationship
2020 Apr 10 Europe Blog Eurogroup: Failure was not an option, but success is not guaranteed
2020 Apr 03 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (4)
2020 Apr 03 Focus Europe Euro area and the virus crisis: The path ahead
2020 Mar 17 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (3)
2020 Mar 11 Focus Europe COVID-19 dbDIG survey: The impact on households (2)
2020 Mar 06 Focus Europe COVID19: Judging the impact with high frequency, alternative and new data
2020 Mar 06 Focus Europe Shadow analysis: Will the ECB change its reaction function?
2020 Mar 04 Focus Europe COVID-19: How to think about the immediate ECB response
2020 Feb 28 Focus Europe COVID-19: How policy can buffer the virus shock
2020 Feb 21 Data Flash SIREN: tracking euro-area macro news
2020 Feb 20 Focus Europe The impact of the coronavirus: A supply-chain analysis
2020 Feb 04 Focus Europe Cycle Dashboard: Better, but there are good reasons to remain prudent
2020 Jan 22 Focus Europe An index of ECB council cohesion: Low, but not unusually low
2020 Jan 17 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Nothing to see here, move along
2020 Jan 10 Focus Europe Cycle Dashboard: tentative signs of improvement but prudence still needed
2020 Jan 03 Data Flash Euro area credit impulse lowest since 2013, adding to ECB side effects debate
2019 Dec 12 Focus Europe ECB: Time to listen, learn and reflect
2019 Dec 10 Focus Europe Shadow analysis: Market back in line with ECB policy rule
2019 Dec 02 Focus Europe ECB Strategic Review: necessary but not sufficient
2019 Nov 28 Focus Europe Cycle Dashboard: Some positive signals, but caution prevails
2019 Oct 30 Focus Europe Cycle Dashboard: Domestic demand resilience cannot be taken for granted
2019 Oct 23 Focus Europe Economic uncertainty: rising and spreading
2019 Oct 22 Focus Europe Shadow analysis: A yield curve implied estimate of the reversal rate
2019 Sep 27 Focus Europe Cycle Dashboard: Caution prevails!
2019 Sep 24 Focus Europe The post-crisis performance of inflation expectations and forecasts
2019 Sep 20 Focus Europe Forecast Update: The Policy Gap
2019 Sep 06 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Solving for the optimal policy package
2019 Sep 04 Focus Europe More effective ECB policy: Interest rates (& tiering)
2019 Jul 25 Focus Europe ECB: Moving to a new reaction function
2019 Jul 18 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Guidance, symmetry and absolute commitment
2019 Jun 20 UK economic notes Underlying inflation showing no signs of pressure yet
2019 Jun 13 Focus Europe The catalysts for ECB easing are being triggered
2019 Jun 11 Focus Europe Shadow Analysis: Ready to react to market-based growth expectations
2019 Jun 04 Focus Europe A primer on the reversal rate
2019 May 30 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Policymaking in a reversal rate framework
2019 May 20 Focus Europe Shadow Analysis: A broader shadow rate and look at the US-China trade war
2019 Apr 30 Focus Europe Cycle dashboard: trouble with the transmission
2019 Apr 25 Focus Europe Euro area Q1 GDP: Heading for a positive surprise
2019 Apr 16 Special report Scope for policy stimulus when a global recession hits
2019 Apr 12 Focus Europe Shadow Analysis: using our new policy framework to decipher Draghi
2019 Apr 08 Focus Europe What no-deal Brexit could mean for the ECB monetary policy stance
2019 Apr 05 Focus Europe ECB Preview: Seeking clarity on the reaction function
2019 Apr 04 Focus Europe First-difference rule: Explaining ECB policy behaviour
2019 Feb 25 Focus Europe Shadow Rates: Judging the policy stance in an unconventional world